Jane Street–styleQuant ResearcherQuantitative ResearcherQuestion #408

You play rock, paper, scissors against an opponent who cannot play rock. To maximize your expected profit, what should you play, given that you win $1 for a win, lose $1 for a loss, and win $0 for a draw?

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State the assumptions, try a simple case, then work toward a general solution. Check the result and explain how it changes if an assumption changes.

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