Kelly Criterion
The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal fraction of capital to risk on a bet or trade, maximizing long-term geometric growth while managing the risk of ruin.
The Sharpe ratio, developed by Nobel laureate William Sharpe, measures the excess return per unit of risk for an investment or trading strategy. It is calculated as (portfolio return - risk-free rate) / portfolio standard deviation. A higher Sharpe ratio indicates better risk-adjusted performance. It is the single most cited performance metric in quantitative finance.
The Sharpe ratio, developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe in 1966, is the most widely used measure of risk-adjusted return in finance. It answers a deceptively simple question: how much return are you earning per unit of risk?
Raw returns alone are misleading. A strategy that returns 20% annually sounds great β until you learn that it has 40% annual volatility and experienced a 60% drawdown. The Sharpe ratio normalizes returns by risk (measured as standard deviation), making it possible to compare strategies that have very different return and risk profiles.
The concept is intuitive: if two strategies earn the same return but one has half the volatility, the less volatile strategy has a higher Sharpe ratio β it's generating the same return with less risk. In quantitative finance, the Sharpe ratio is the first thing evaluated when assessing any strategy, and it is closely linked to optimal sizing via the Kelly criterion.
The Sharpe ratio formula is:
Sharpe = (Rp - Rf) / σp
Where:
The numerator (Rp - Rf) is called the excess return β the return above what you'd earn with zero risk. The denominator is the volatility β a measure of how much the returns fluctuate.
Annualization: If you're computing the Sharpe from daily returns, multiply the daily Sharpe by √252 (there are approximately 252 trading days per year) to annualize it. This assumes returns are independently distributed across days.
Interpretation guidelines:
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Let's compare two trading strategies:
Strategy A β Momentum:
Strategy B β Statistical Arbitrage:
Strategy A has higher raw returns (15% vs. 8%), but Strategy B has a higher Sharpe ratio (1.00 vs. 0.50). Strategy B generates more return per unit of risk. With leverage, Strategy B could be scaled up to match Strategy A's returns while maintaining much lower risk.
Scaling with leverage: If you lever Strategy B 5x, it would generate roughly 5 Γ 3% = 15% excess return with 5 Γ 3% = 15% volatility, giving a Sharpe of 1.00 β still much better risk-adjusted performance than Strategy A. This illustrates why the Sharpe ratio, not raw returns, is the primary metric: a high-Sharpe strategy can always be leveraged to achieve any desired return level.
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Book a Free ConsultAt quant trading firms, the Sharpe ratio is used at every stage of the strategy lifecycle:
Typical Sharpe ratios by strategy type: market making (3-6), HFT stat arb (3-10), daily stat arb (1.5-3), medium-frequency strategies (1-2), long-only equity (0.3-0.7).
The Sharpe ratio: excess return over the risk-free rate divided by the standard deviation of returns. Higher values indicate better risk-adjusted performance.
Annualization of the Sharpe ratio from daily returns. 252 is the number of trading days per year. Assumes daily returns are independently distributed.
The Sharpe ratio is universally tested in quant interviews. You should be able to compute it, interpret it, understand its limitations, and discuss how it relates to the Kelly criterion and portfolio optimization. Firms like Citadel, Two Sigma, Jane Street, and Hudson River Trading use the Sharpe ratio as the primary yardstick for strategy quality.
See our Citadel interview questions for real examples. Book a free consultation to discuss your strategy evaluation skills.
The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that determines the optimal fraction of capital to risk on a bet or trade, maximizing long-term geometric growth while managing the risk of ruin.
Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum expected loss of a portfolio over a specified time period at a given confidence level, serving as a standard risk measure across the financial industry.
Alpha represents the excess return a portfolio generates above its benchmark (a measure of skill), while beta measures the portfolio's sensitivity to market movements (systematic risk exposure).
Maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline in portfolio value, representing the worst-case loss a strategy has experienced and a key metric for evaluating downside risk.
It depends on the strategy type. For a long-only equity portfolio, a Sharpe of 0.5 is decent. For an active hedge fund strategy, a Sharpe of 1-2 is good. For high-frequency or market-making strategies, a Sharpe above 3 is typical. In general, any strategy with a Sharpe above 1 is considered worth pursuing, and above 2 is strong. Be cautious of extremely high backtested Sharpe ratios (>5) β they often indicate overfitting.
The main limitations are: (1) It treats upside and downside volatility equally β but investors care more about downside risk (the Sortino ratio addresses this). (2) It assumes normally distributed returns, which understates the risk of strategies with fat tails or skewed returns. (3) It can be manipulated by smoothing returns, using illiquid assets, or selecting favorable time periods. (4) Annualizing daily Sharpes assumes serial independence, which is not always true.
The Kelly criterion for continuous returns says the optimal leverage is f* = mu / sigma^2, which can be rewritten as f* = Sharpe / sigma. This means a strategy with a higher Sharpe ratio warrants more capital allocation (leverage). The Sharpe ratio directly determines the optimal position size in a Kelly framework, making the two concepts deeply connected.
The Sharpe ratio uses total standard deviation (both upside and downside) in the denominator, while the Sortino ratio uses only downside deviation (volatility of negative returns). The Sortino ratio is more relevant for strategies with asymmetric returns β a strategy that occasionally has large gains but consistent small gains would look better under Sortino than Sharpe. In practice, quant firms report both.
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